How Market Outcomes Are Determined
Each market asks a clear question about a real-world event. When the outcome becomes publicly known, the Exchange confirms it using the criteria defined in the market’s description and rules. Markets resolve using the specific sources listed in the rules. These sources provide the authoritative outcome. Some contracts also have backup sources that can be used if a listed source is unavailable; for sports markets, see the Sports FAQs. All determinations follow the event-contract framework used across Polymarket US.Types of Resolution Sources
Common types of resolution sources are listed below. Each category has clear standards for what counts as official.Government
Government providers supply final, authoritative data for political, economic, and administrative outcomes (e.g., Congress, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Weather Service).Sports
Sports markets resolve using results published by the governing league or competition organizer (e.g., professional football leagues, professional basketball leagues, professional baseball leagues).Financial benchmarks
Crypto price markets resolve on the published value of a named reference index, such as CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Each market’s rules state the index and how its value is calculated (for example, the average of the index prices in the final minute before the settlement time). Prices on exchanges or other indices do not count.News
Some markets use news outlets as resolution sources. When the rules list specific outlets, resolution comes from those exact outlets. Some markets rely on a single outlet, while others require agreement between several named outlets (e.g., major news outlets, wire services, national newsrooms).Timing of Resolution
Resolution occurs after the event outcome is publicly confirmed.- Sports markets: Often resolve shortly after the official result is posted
- Political or news markets: May take longer if certification or official publication is required
- Complex events: May require additional verification before resolution
After Resolution
When a market resolves:- Winning shares settle at $1.00
- Losing shares settle at $0.00
- Your Portfolio updates automatically when settlement completes